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Dear patient readers,
Forgive me for not writing an Iran war post, but there is far too much noise in the signal. Iran foreign minister Araghchi is still in the US, with indirect talks taking place between mediators. The lack of direct meetings is continued proof of lack of trust. The Iran move to embarrass the US into engaging IMHO is a PR show more than a serious measure (although one has to be prepared for out-of-the-box responses). Recall that talks contain oil price increases so Trump has reason to follow Iran’s lead.
But it is hard to see these conversations as other than for show. Iran knows the US generally and even more so under Trump is not agreement capable. It seems vanishingly unlikely that Trump could bring himself to take the up-front steps needed to counter that, such as releasing all the frozen funds. And the US cannot deliver Israel’s compliance.
And most important, Iran has not reached a key war aim, of inflicting so much pain on the US and Israel that they are deterred from attacking Iran again for at least a generation.
In keeping, the US continues to move air assets into the region, although Larry Wilkerson on Mario Nawfal said there were none of the usual indicators of imminent attack.
As for Strait of Hormuz transits, despite knee-jerk rejections by some Iran-sympathetic commentators, it’s clear that oil is getting out, and perhaps even in decent volumes. Yesterday, we highlighted an article by Nicholas Wade, The Vulnerabilities Behind the Gulf Export Recovery. Wade went carefully through what can reasonably be known and found that the transits now are in the 8-12 million barrel a day range. Keep in mind the pre-war level was 15 to 20 million barrels a day. So the world is still starved of crude, just at not as severe a level as say a month ago.
We pointed out about a week ago that none other than Professor Marandi confirmed that, although he said some of the shipments were of Iranian oil transported through Iraq.
As you will see below, the apparent movement is or could be so high that one expert claimed that Iran had lost control of the Strait of Hormuz. The counter-argument is that the key to Iran prevailing is not the threat to create a global depression but destruction of US military assets in the region.
There may be an additional explanation, as in dark matter, as in pressure from China. China thought it was so important to blunt the global impact of the choking of the Strait of Hormuz that it stopped buying oil on global markets entirely and drew down its (admittedly vast) strategic petroleum reserve. China has now resumed oil purchases but not at its pre-war level.
China’s domestic economy is weak. Its biggest export markets are Southeast Asia and Europe. Both are hit hard by the energy crunch. Even though China is not as export dependent as it once was, with internal demand flagging, a global recession or worse depression would hit China hard and intensify what more and more looks like a Japan-style balance sheet recession.
In other words, this is one of those times when sitting things out for a day or two informationally on the big issues on the Iran war front might allow for some fog to clear.
* * *
Scientists were wrong about this strange mammal for nearly 40 years Science Daily (Kevin W)
In Praise of Obsessive Men Aporia (Micael T)
Scrolls, not screens: Tibetan calligrapher brings his art to the next generation Christian Science Monitor (Robin K)
Why the Bronze Age collapsed Working Press (Micael T)
Salt Syndicate, Part I Age of Invention (Micael T)
Great Leaps in Biological Theory Asimov Press (Micael T)
Climate/Environment
Russian woman mauled to death by bear as attacks surge across Siberian region Independent
3 lionesses die at Tokyo zoo during recent record heat wave Asahi
Earth may not bounce back after temporarily crossing climate limits Earth.com
Icebreakers may go further north than usual route: scientists discover new current in the Arctic www1.ru
150,000 Tons of Radioactive Waste Were Dumped in The Atlantic. Decades Later, It’s Visibly Oozing Science Alert
SOUTH AMERICA HISTORIC HEAT
Exceptional MINIMUM 30.8 Miguel y Jesus
PARAGUAY HOTTEST SEPTEMBER NIGHT EVER
Dozens of records pulverized in Paraguay,Brazil,Bolivia,Argentina and Peru
including all time records like the insane 43.6C at Robore
See a list below: https://t.co/kHgZrGfbrj pic.twitter.com/0H2Z7cCooS
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) September 29, 2026
Scientists clone Southern Africa’s wild fruit trees as forests disappear Mongabay
Historic drought conditions recorded in Kansas: July and August 2026 mark driest period since Dust Bowl High Plains Journal
Texas Farmer Says Drought Is the Worst He’s Ever Seen Agriculture
Elites Have No Plan for Climate Collapse Counterpunch
Water
Pakistan’s Sharif warns any diversion of Indus waters will be ‘treated as an act of war’ UN
China?
Li Xunlei on China’s Transport Overcapacity The East is Read (Robin K)
India and the Rest of South Asia
India-US relationship: Why it’s time to call the bully’s bluff The Week (Colonel Smithers
Dhaka’s energy crisis is turning everyday life into survival Asia News
Nepal’s flooding disaster set to pile billions onto its national debt Independent
Africa
Kenyan growers behind half of Britain’s black tea supply say climate shocks are crushing incomes TCD
Strikes hit Sudan cities as army chief defiant after US visa snub Arab News
Sudan’s refugee exodus to Chad jumps 20-fold as aid dries up Middle East Online
South of the Border
‘Cuba’s already fallen,’ US Secretary of State says Anadolu Agency
‘We cannot take it anymore’: Haiti’s informal vendors protest over gang warfare Global Voices
Venezuelan Gov’t, Opposition Faction Announce Judicial and Freedom of Speech Agreements Venezuelanalysis (Robin K)
The gangs testing Colombia’s hardline new leader Financial Times
European Disunion
Europe braces for LNG tug of war with Asia Australia Financial Review
Rejoice! Looks like the great European leaders have found a new instrument of self-inflicted pain: a new tool to cut all Chinese imports within 24h.
If you’ve enjoyed getting rid of Russian energy, you’re going to love that…
And here I was hoping that to “tackle the China… https://t.co/bV01w6CJnw
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) September 28, 2026
EU tells countries to curb energy demand as gas prices face winter squeeze Euronews
Full article here:
Tens of thousands attend right-wing protest over Ceuta migrant crisis Aljazeera
Farmers Face Severe Losses as Rainfall Deficit Reaches Record Levels Hungary Today
Old Blighty
Such dangerous terrorists. Released on bail:
It makes sense that the 5 men arrested were out stealing red diesel from vulnerable farm bowsers. Thefts of farm diesel are up over 300% in 2026 as the diesel price shot up after Trump-Netanyahu’s elective war against Iran.
The fake fuel company signage would be good cover for… https://t.co/7nynRPnNR7
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) September 28, 2026
RAF Fairford incident involves ‘foreign actor’, says Rubio, as some evacuated residents return home BBC. *Sigh*
JUST IN🇬🇧: UK 10-year gilt yield climbs above 5.44%, the highest level since July 2007.
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) September 28, 2026
UK shares findings of damning climate crisis national security report suppressed under Starmer Guardian
Cheese and butter prices could soar after heatwave hits milk production Independent
As El Niño advances, Britain’s preppers may have a point Observer
Israel v. The Resistance
Türkiye slams storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli extremist groups TRT
Images from Google Maps show scale of Israel’s destruction of Gaza Aljazeera. Scoll into the live feed.
Three years of constant bombardments, destruction and attacks against healthcare in Gaza to create and preserve conditions of life conditions of life leading to the elimination of Palestinians as a group. https://t.co/S2xx7v4I2K
— Nicola Perugini (@PeruginiNic) September 28, 2026
Far-right settlers divert West Bank spring water as Israel backs heritage site takeovers Independent
Ben-Gvir posts video claiming both banks of Jordan River belong to Israel Azer News
Iran War/Ansar Allah v. Saudis
🔺 Rising oil flows through Hormuz don’t mean Iran has lost its leverage, argues sanctions expert Esfandyar Batmanghelidj of the London-based Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, rebutting claims Iran has “lost control” of the strait.
Iran retains “undiminished capabilities” to strike… https://t.co/nUojMWOFKd
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 28, 2026
From underlying article:
* * *
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS LATEST
🔸President Trump said Monday his team spoke with mediators working to end the war with Iran, but offered no details. “We’re going to win. As far as I’m concerned, it’s going to be one way or the other. It’s going to go pretty quickly,” he told…
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 28, 2026
Araghchi: Zero compromise on Iran’s nuclear program, US response expected Tuesday PressTV
Live: Araghchi adamant ‘no change’ in Iran’s position for deal with US Middle East Eye
Iran parliament speaker warns no one in region will sell oil if Tehran cannot Anadolu Agency
* * *
Ambrey confirms: A fire has broken out on board a vessel in the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/F3YO75LcfL
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 28, 2026
* * *
Saudi Arabia is reaping a massive oil windfall, making it perhaps the Iran war’s only winner. Tehran’s proxies actually ‘did Saudi a favor’ Fortune
* * *
Yemenis say they don’t have enough water in Taiz displacement camp Reuters
New Not-So-Cold War
Putin orders army expansion as Zelenskyy warns Russia preparing to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops CNBC. 15,500 force increase is a lead story?
Baltic and Caspian routes offset only 25% of Russia’s grain export losses through Black Sea ports UkrAgroConsult
EU countries consider Nato-style joint responses to Russian hybrid attacks Financial Times. No archived version yet.
‘Russian sleeper cell’: Can Germany’s far-right AfD be barred from sensitive intel? France24
Imperial Collapse Watch
Crunch Time for US Empire Finn Andreen (Micael T)
The Rise And…Rise Of ‘Color Revolutions’ Kit Klarenberg (Micael T)
Trump 2.0
The Untold Origins of Trump’s Plan to Sharply Restrict Mail-In Voting ProPublica (Robin K)
Exclusive: Hegseth directs Defense Dept. to fight foreigners who “meddle” in U.S. elections Axios (Kevin W)
‘It’s just getting worse’: anger in Maine over Trump’s trade war with close neighbor Canada Guardian
Senate Resoundingly Approves Sweeping College Sports Measure New York Times (resilc)
Economy
The Next Global Energy Crisis Won’t Come From Just One Direction OilPrice
Diesel car values crash as pump prices reach record high Telegraph
Mr. Market is Chewing His Knuckles
Oil price rise puts more pressure on government bonds Financial Times
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield closes at 5.56%, the highest level since August 2003 🤯 👀 pic.twitter.com/NQUcF7Crym
— Barchart (@Barchart) September 28, 2026
But later: Treasury yields ease as inflation concerns persist CNBC
10-Year Government bond yields:
🇯🇵 Japan 3.09% — highest since 1996
🇺🇸 US 5.24% — highest since 2007
🇬🇧 UK 5.40% — highest since 2007
🇫🇷 France 4.76% — highest since 2008
🇩🇪 Germany 3.63% — highest since 2009
🇦🇺 Australia 5.38% — highest since 2011
🇮🇹 Italy 4.59% — highest since… pic.twitter.com/tRxtRKKHGQ
— GoldSilver HQ (@GoldSilverHQ) September 29, 2026
AI
OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns Wall Street Journal. Exclusive + lead story.
This weekend our team spent 48 hours investigating the rogue OpenAI agent activity that targeted the Australian government and other organizations. Our report (coming soon) includes:
– Evidence of additional US government and other websites probed by the agents, including the CDC, International Energy Agency, and Mayo Clinic.
– Novel tactics which left records erased or inaccessible. This makes it impossible (based on public data alone) to establish that the agents did not access any sensitive data. Future investigations should analyse whether these tactics were deliberate subterfuge. 🧵
— Asymmetric Security (@AsymmetricCyber) September 28, 2026
AI and the Fall? of the Creative Class Jospeh Politano (Micael T)
Guillotine Watch
SCA on the tech billionaire’s forest purchase: “Mostly bare forest.” EFN via machine translation. Micael T: “The Epstein-class try to put a nice spin on selling land to foreign owners and to one of the leading zionazis on earth.”
Class Warfare
Driving to death: NYC yellow taxi drivers keep dying on the job, unable to make ends meet Gothamist
Antidote du jour (via):
A bonus:
Crows are incredibly smart that this one figured out how to turn a tap on to get water and even remembered to turn it off afterwards. pic.twitter.com/58bNxR36TH
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) September 27, 2026
A second bonus:
A tiny newborn elephant was swept away from its mother while trying to cross the swollen Teesta River in India.
Fishermen spotted its trunk above the water and chased it for nearly 4 km through the powerful current before pulling the exhausted calf to safety.
Then, after a…
— Volcaholic 🌋 (@volcaholic1) September 22, 2026
And a third:
— cute cat 😺 (@CartoonCraze37) September 23, 2026
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
