News broke last week that starting May 1 Russia will no longer transit oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline. This is a disaster for Germany and couldn’t come at a worse time with the global supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.
The Kazakh oil that Russia delivers to Germany makes up roughly 17 percent of the supply at the Schwedt refinery, which provides the vast majority of diesel, petrol and heating oil for East Germany, including Berlin.
Schwedt itself was seized from the Russian oil company Rosneft in 2022, and as Germany scrambles to find new delivery routes for the Kazakh oil, this latest saga offers yet another reminder of how fantastical and self-defeating this whole conflict with Russia is for Berlin. Meanwhile, the news media continues to spin tales filled with half-truths, omissions, and outright lies. Politico’s Weekly Berlin Bulletin not only demonstrates the alternate reality inhabitted by the German ruling class, but if we make some key corrections and fill in blanks, illustrates what a jam Germany is in:
VLADIMIR THE OPPORTUNIST: As Berlin reels from a fresh energy shock triggered by the Iran war, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have sensed a moment of opportunity.
The Kazakh factor: Moscow confirmed this week that it will stop the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the decision “is related to technical capabilities to date.”
Remaining leverage: But experts and some German politicians we talked to this week don’t believe that is a highly plausible explanation. Germany weaned itself off Russian natural gas and oil in the aftermath of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But Germany continues to receive a modest amount of Kazakh oil via a branch of the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Russia, still giving the Kremlin some direct leverage over Germany.
Every bit counts: Though the amount of Kazakh oil coming to Germany isn’t massive, amid an energy crunch that is hitting the German economy particularly hard, causing the government to slash its growth forecast just this week, every little bit counts. The halt of Kazakh oil flows, first reported by Reuters, comes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces rising pressure to cut surging fuel prices, and experts believe the Kremlin wants to maximize Germany’s pain.
Multiple motives: “It’s a convenient moment to increase the grief the refineries are in,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. But Vakulenko, an oil and gas industry expert, suggested there could be another motive. A redirection of the Kazakh oil to Germany would have to go through Russian Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga or Primorsk, which have come under increasing attack by the Ukrainian military amid its effort to reduce the oil revenue the Kremlin is using to fund its war.
‘Shield’ for Moscow: Kyiv increased its targeting of Russia’s oil export infrastructure, including the Baltic ports, at the end of March to reduce Moscow’s windfall energy revenues. Russia’s port oil infrastructure is vital to the Kremlin, serving as a route for exports to China and India. If Germany were also to need these ports to receive Kazakh oil, it could potentially pressure the Ukrainians to stop their drone attacks on these ports, Vakulenko said, acting as a kind of “shield” for Moscow.
Let’s have at it:
Key Omission: Why Is Russia Halting Deliveries?
Moscow hasn’t said but here’s officials in Kazakhstan: “This is most likely due to the recent attacks on Russian infrastructure,” Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said.
Ukrainian attacks, aided by Germany of course, continue to attack a wide range of Russian energy infrastructure. The media in Germany and elsewhere across the West love to claim that this is crippling Russia, but react with indignation when it affects German imports. Meanwhile, a blind eye is turned to other obvious sabotaging of infrastructure used to import Russian energy sources. A prime example is the recent standoff over repairs to the southern segment of Druzhba that sends oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
According to Zelensky the damages were caused by a Russian strike, and Ukraine was finally able to finish repairs just in time for its desperately needed 90-billion EU loan.
Of course, while demanding those billions, Zelensky added the following: “Although no one can guarantee that Russian attacks on the oil pipeline infrastructure will not happen again…”
And right on cue those dastardly Russians are at it again:
Ukrainian drones strike Druzhba pipeline station that produces export-grade oil – sources Ukrayinska Pravda
Hilariously, Germany now plans to receive the Kazakh oil via Russian ports —the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, both of which have been under attack by Ukrainian drones. In the case of Ust-Luga, it is widely believed the drones are traveling from Ukraine through the Baltic states (if not launched from there) and have caused Moscow to issue stern warnings to Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius.
Correction: Germany Has NOT ‘Weaned Itself Off’ Russian Natural Gas and Oil.
Take it away, Clean Energy Wire:
Energy industry association BDEW said that Norway has now become Germany’s top gas supplier by far, with about 45 percent in 2025, transported by pipeline. Around one tenth of the gas used in the country arrives as liquefied natural gas (LNG) directly at one of four import terminals along the coast. In 2025, around 95 percent of that LNG came from the US.
The origin of much of the remaining gas crossing the border into Germany from neighbouring countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Denmark is difficult to attribute, said BDEW. It includes supplies from a variety of world regions, with the US, Algeria and Russia as major suppliers. Thus, Russian gas arriving as LNG in ports in Spain, France and Belgium still ends up in Germany’s gas grid, even as direct imports have ceased. Think tank Agora Energiewende said that about a total of one third of Germany’s gas imports came from the US in 2025, if the US share in imports from neighbouring Belgium and the Netherlands is taken into account.
The US no doubt is now the dominant player, but Russia still exports plenty of LNG to the EU:
And contrary to what BDEW says, it’s not that difficult to gather some idea of gas crossing into Germany from neighboring countries. This gives you an idea:
So Russia roughly 78 percent of Russia’s LNG imports to the EU are to countries neighboring Germany (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands). Unless they’ve set up some magical system to ensure no Russian gas gets mixed in with the others before it goes to Germany, weaned off Germany is not.
The same is true of oil. While Germany claims it is off of it, that is simply not true.
First of all, the Kazakh oil that comes through Druzhba, the world’s longest oil pipeline, is likely mixed with Russian oil. Still, the argument goes that Kazakhstan receives the payments so in effect Germany has cut off Russian oil financially. Also not true, however.
The Kazakh oil originates from consortia that include Russian partners like Lukoil (although Kazakhstan is seeking US approval to buy Lukoil’s Kazakh assets) and Moscow still earns transit fees.
Zooming out further, crude oil is notoriously difficult to track on global markets as it is mixed or blended. And despite a slew of harebrained efforts by Western officials, Russian oil is still an integral part of global trade.
There are more obvious cases like Azerbaijan, which has upped its imports of oil and gas to the EU. In turn receives more supplies from Russia to cover domestic demand — and potentially mix with its exports.
Turkey has increased oil imports from Russia, as well as its exports to the EU. So has India.
The EU’s 18th package of sanctions that went into force earlier this year ostensibly tries to prohibit the import of refined petroleum products deriving from Russian-origin crude oil, but there are plenty of loopholes. From RFE/RL:
In any case, critics have warned that some refineries could try to conceal the origin of the crude oil used in their products to evade the EU sanctions.
They’ve also suggested that exemptions for countries, including Britain or Serbia, create an opportunity for oil products refined from Russian crude to be reexported to the EU.
CREA analyst Isaac Levi said the same tactic could be used within individual countries, since the ban relates to ports and refineries importing Russian crude.
“There’s a Georgian refinery called the Kulevi refinery on the Black Sea and it buys Russian crude oil, refines it into products…and it looks to be sending those refined products from a different port,” he told RFE/RL.
Why Fuel Your Enemy?
Politico’s write up of the Kazakh oil situation, like all the others in the Western media, omit some critical context. They do not mention that it comes at the same time Germany is enabling relentless attacks inside Russia, helping fuel a war that is killing Russians, is increasingly integrating weaponry production with Ukraine, converting auto factories to weapons production, and claiming it has plans to become the strongest military in Europe (not saying much) in order to take on Russia.
One could argue Moscow’s response is mild.
One Accuracy: It Is Impeccably Timed
If the halt of Kazakh oil really is a decision on Moscow’s part and not caused by damages from Ukrainian strikes, it’s certainly well-timed. From DW:
While the refinery is likely to have enough alternatives to maintain much of its supply, the news comes as Europe and other parts of the world are grappling with one of the most serious energy crises in decades.
The war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the flow of oil to Europe and Asia, and has seen prices soaring.
Kerosene, needed for jet fuel and a key product from the PCK refinery, is in particularly short supply at present as a result of the crisis. Airlines around the world have been forced to cut flights, with Lufthansa slashing 20,000 from its May to October schedule this week.
Illustrative of the ongoing madness that has infected elite thinking in Europe, the DW piece concludes with the mantra that Russia is “weaponizing” energy exports and the only solution is to keep doubling down on the great weaning off.
Meanwhile, the very same sources are in shock that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party continues to surge. The AfD is commonly labeled “far right” yet there is debate over just how far right. Despite some controversial statements by party officials and support from Germans with neo-Nazi beliefs, the party is largely composed of conservatives opposed to open borders, anti-EU nationalists, grifters, and free market enthusiasts.
Whether one believes the AfD represents the rise of the Fourth Reich or are more run of the mill political opportunists, the fact is the party now leads the polls in Germany as it campaigns on the rising costs of living and argues (sensibly) for renewed energy ties with Russia and more Germans respond to alarm over the party’s downsides with one question: how much worse could it get?
We’ll have more clarity on that question come the Fall. In September, the AfD looks increasingly likely to win a plurality of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In the run up or aftermath of those elections, it’s entirely possible that Germany is plunged into new depths should the establishment act on calls to ban the party, which yes, is apparently a thing in the democratic West.
