[This Iran war post launched before complete because existing commitments. I will tweak it a bit upon my return and a final version will be ready by 8:00 AM EDT at the outside]
As Trump normally relishes, he is the center of attention over the epochally-important question of “Will he or won’t he resume attacks on Iran?” Iran is not making this easy for him via refusing to include any porcine maquillage in its latest proposal, although one could argue the mere fact of a proposal is an itty bitty concession. The Wall Street Journal tried to pretty things up on behalf of Trump, claiming in a headline that Iran had softened its stance by dropping its demand that the US needed to end its blockade as a precondition to talks. We pointed out that this was a procedural move only, that there was no sign that Iran had relented on its substantive demands, and that that give was offset by what Team Trump was likely to view as an even bigger take, that of deferring discussion of nuclear issues to focus on Strait of Hormuz and other immediate conflict matters. Recall that many commentators suggested that a possible Trump face-saver would be to get an improvement on nuclear enrichment terms compared to the JCPOA, such as no sunset, and call that a win in the face of other massive climbdowns. Iran is not allowing even that.1
Per Drop Site:2
🚨 UPDATE: Details of Iran’s 14-point response to U.S. proposal, according to Iran’s Tasnim News:
▪️ IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reports that Iran has delivered, in response to a 9-point U.S. proposal, its proposal to the Pakistani intermediary. It is centered on “ending the…
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 2, 2026
Our reading yesterday was that Trump looked inclined to restart the conflict. His latest signals are consistent with that:
You know things are going well when The White House posts an hour long video loop of Trump saying “winning”. pic.twitter.com/FxuXnhis9R
— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) May 2, 2026
Admittedly, Trump sets out to make it hard to read what he thinks he is up to. But acceding to Iran’s terms is not winning. Hitting Iran is winning until Iran hits back.
Daniel Davis gives some sound reactions (The archiving sites are currently not responding, so forgive me for relying on tweets rather than Axios source material):
Iran today reportedly issued the United States a 14 plan to end the war in a response to Trump‘s latest demands for a negotiated end. But President Trump is reported to have rejected those terms and it’s already DOA.
Meanwhile, Trump is in a real time crunch, with no obvious… pic.twitter.com/t8ePuTMyRt
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) May 2, 2026
This deal would amount to a public admission of failure by Trump. By also requiring an end to the war in Lebanon, would require an effective surrender by Israel and a withdrawal of its forces. That battle has been raging, even in the last hours today, so don’t count on that being… https://t.co/8djLIEoQrG
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) May 3, 2026
And of course Israel is busy throwing spanners:
⭕️⚡️ Hebrew Channel 14:
Hezbollah is increasing the pace of fire in an attempt to thwart negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government and impose a new equation.
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 2, 2026
Armchair Warlord makes a bigger, if also distressing, observation, that the embarrassing chest-thumping and loud-mouthing-in-lieu-of-logic that is Hegseth’s signature has become common in the armed services…so common that it is not even seen as a disease:
Our military establishment in America has been so mentally destroyed by the privilege of hegemony that they can’t even comprehend what defeat actually looks like.⬇️
A concise definition: Victory is when you impose your will on the enemy. A military advisor told this to Trump… pic.twitter.com/UtInsvuOLT
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) May 2, 2026
On the kinetic front, all we have are informational tidbits. A wave of military transport planes have left the Gulf, which could indicate movement of material out, or backhaul flights to bring in yet more kit, or simply returning after having completed their rounds. Nevertheless:
⭕️ Multiple U.S. Air Force Transport Planes Tracked Departing Middle East Simultaneously
Open-source flight tracking data shared by @EGYOSINT shows at least eight U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster and C-5M Super Galaxy strategic military transport aircraft departing the Middle… https://t.co/yTD7d2ShMU
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 3, 2026
The start of this talk will probably be unduly basic for most readers, but Professor Hanke soon makes some important points. He makes his own computation of inflation rates based on daily data and claims Iran’s is at over 100%. But he then states that that does not matter regarding their war posture, they can take a lot of pain and regard this war as existential. He is also an adviser to the UAE government and has developed an optimal oil production model for them. He says he expected the UAE to leave OPEC for the last 2 1/2 years based on that, it was just a matter of timing. He also says the UAE request for dollar swap lines is overblown (and the request has not yet been granted). It is more a free rainy day insurance policy than a sign of imminent need (although I expect that need to materialize faster than Hanke seems to think). They also point out that he average amount of oil on hand in Asia is only about 3 weeks, with Pakistan at only 3 days (Thailand is currently at 108). And Iran is not able to fill Pakistan’s energy hole.3
Janta Ka highlights the escalating row between the US and China over the US imposing secondary sanctions on five Chinese companies:
More from Aljazeeera’s live blog:
China attempts to block US sanctions on companies buying Iran oil
We reported earlier on how the US slapped sanctions on Chinese entities deemed to be involved in the Iranian oil trade, prompting Beijing to denounce Washington’s“ long-arm jurisdiction”.
Now the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has issued an injunction to block the US sanctions, which were imposed on five Chinese companies accused of buying Iranian oil.
The ministry named the five as Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group, Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical, according to the state news agency Xinhua.
It was not immediately clear how the injunction would be enforced.
The issue here is that China cannot do much to stop the US measure, which seems likely to lead as least some companies to restrict their dealing with these Chinese entities. However, the Chinese formal oppostion does set up retaliatory measures, which might force the US to back down.
Janta Ka also features Larry Johnson lambasting the US blockade. However, we again feel compelled to clear our throat. Yes, this move is utterly embarrassing by the standard of a typical military blockade, intended to prevent the delivery of weapons (as in the Cuban missile crisis) or critical material like fuel. In those cases, the aim is close to 100% effectiveness.
Here, even though the US would no doubt like to achieve that, 80/20 is more than good enough to limit oil shipments from Iran (and incidentally other countries, which is why this move to hurt Iran also extends that harm to bystanders). Very few ship operators are willing to risk having vessels captured or damaged, or have crew members jailed or hurt. While I do not know for sure, it seems vanishingly unlikely that war insurance would cover damage or loss of use resulting from running the blockage. That is an operator choice to put the vessel in harm’s way and not innocent victimhood.
And by happenstance, an 80% reduction in Iranian exports is a good guess as to what has taken place. From Alarabiya (hat tip Rui):
With some vessels switching off tracking systems and US forces turning back Iranian tankers, how much crude Iran is delivering to customers, particularly main customer China, is impossible to measure.
Just a handful of carriers carrying Iranian crude have left the Gulf of Oman between April 13-25, oil analytics firm Vortexa said. That’s down over 80 percent from a comparable period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels, LSEG data shows.
Some of Tehran’s vessels have been intercepted by the US after leaving Iranian ports, along with sanctioned container ships and Iranian tankers in Asian waters.
“At this stage, we estimate that around 4 million barrels of Iranian crude has successfully moved out of the Gulf of Oman. We are not currently able to confirm whether any of those vessels have since been interdicted,” it said in an email to Reuters.
Skirmishes and blockade-running continue:
A National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertanker carrying over 1.9 million barrels (valued at nearly $220 million dollars) of crude oil has managed to evade the U.S. Navy and reach the Far East.
Her name is HUGE (9357183), and we last sighted her off Sri Lanka over a… pic.twitter.com/dBf7QzPVkB
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 3, 2026
🏴☠️🇺🇸🚢 The US Navy has blocked the bulk carrier NIKI, which was departing from Iran’s Chabahar port en route to South Africa.
A Japan-owned Bulk Carrier “AURORA” was also likely forced to turn around after transiting the Strait of Hormuz with the approval of the IRGC. pic.twitter.com/08pOiqnrUp
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) May 2, 2026
As we pointed out longer-form, Iran has been ramping up other oil export routes, such as via rail to China and through 6 new corridors Pakistan has just opened up. In addition:
🇮🇶🇸🇾 Iraq Routes Oil Through Syria for First Time in 14 Years as Hormuz Closure Batters Economy
A convoy of 70 Iraqi crude oil tankers crossed into Syria via the al-Yarubiyah border crossing on Friday, the first such shipment through the route since the Syrian civil war shut it… pic.twitter.com/QROuqYPfCH
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 3, 2026
Even so, it is not clear how quickly or fully they can compensate for the squeeze on sea-bound exports
Ansar Allah is also threatening escalation against the Saudis, and this warning seems to come out of their own grievances with Riyadh, as opposed to assist Iran (although the fact that Saudi Arabia is already stressed gives Ansar Allah more leverageP. This tweet is from an Ansar Allah spokesperson:
رسالة تحذير أخير إلى المملكة السعودية:
هذه هي الفرصة الأخيرة، ولا تحتمل أي تأجيل أو تردد. لقد نفد صبر شعبنا، ولم يعد هناك مجال لاستمرار الوضع كما هو عليه.
اغتنام هذه اللحظة بات ضرورة حتمية لاتخاذ خطوات جادة تُنهي المعاناة وتعيد الحقوق إلى أصحابها. تجاهل هذه الفرصة سيُفقد أي أمل… pic.twitter.com/6IJRar6E4x
— محمد البخيتي Mohamed A-Bukhai (@kwnn_yemen) May 2, 2026
Not clear if this is related to the Ansar Allah saber-rattling:
⭕️⚡️ The UAE-owned oil tanker “M/T Eureka” has been hijacked off the coast of Shabwah, Yemen, according to a statement from the Yemeni Coast Guard. The tanker departed Fujairah 8 days ago and had been anchored near Mukalla for two days. pic.twitter.com/k18Qkyee44
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 2, 2026
Some additional economic news sightings. Conditions in Australia are grim:
It is surprising that Thailand is in a much better (but still not great) reserve position than Australia
____
1 Iran does have a valid point: the JCPOA negotiations took years.
2 I was not able to find any account on the English version of Tasnim, both scanning articles and via a site search.
3/sup> Professor Hanke gives the impression that Iran can’t provide enough even on an absolute basis, but Iran already has commitments to China and so has only so much it can send to other nations, plus its heavy sour crude is not a perfect
