This Week
This week saw geopolitical tensions around Greenland rise and then fall, overshadowing good news from inflation and spending data.
Specifically, headline and core PCE inflation (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) both came in at 2.8% YoY in November and have been essentially flat since August as inflation may be nearing its peak. That’s helped by the fact that core goods inflation has also flattened, indicating that tariff-related inflation may also peak soon. On the consumer front, real consumer spending grew at a solid +0.3% monthly pace in October and November on broad-based spending, including across discretionary categories (recreation, restaurants, and hotels), suggesting resilient consumer demand.
After a down start to the week, markets rebounded since Wednesday, leaving the Nasdaq-100® (blue line) and 10-year Treasury yields (black line) both flat for the week.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
1. Fed decision and comments on Wednesday (97% chance of no change)
2a. Q4 earnings for MSFT, META, TSLA on Wednesday
2b. Q4 earnings for AAPL on Thursday
3. December Producer Price Inflation on Friday
