Stock futures are inching higher to start the week as the S&P 500 approaches a new record high; President Trump says he plans to be involved in the regulatory decisions around Netflix’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery; shares of Confluent are skyrocketing on news IBM has agreed to acquire the software maker; Carvana, CRH and Comfort Systems USA will each join the S&P 500 later this month; and China’s trade surplus surpassed a record $1 trillion for the year through November. Here’s what you need to know today.
Stock Futures Rise as Investors Await This Week’s Fed Decision
Stock futures are pointing to a slightly higher open this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, due on Wednesday afternoon. Market participants are pricing in about a 90% chance that the central bank will cut its benchmark rate for the third consecutive meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq were recently up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose fractionally. The major indexes ended Friday’s session higher after closely watched inflation data came in largely as expected. The S&P 500 enters this week just 0.3% away from a fresh record closing high. Bitcoin was trading at $91,900 recently, up from a weekend low below $88,000. Gold futures were little changed at around $4,240 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 4.16%, up from 4.14% on Friday and trading at its highest level in more than a month.
Trump Says Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery Market Share ‘Could Be a Problem’
President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he expects to be involved in the decision over whether Netflix’s (NFLX) acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is approved by regulators. Speaking to reporters as he arrived at a Kennedy Center event, Trump said that, with Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix would have “a big market share, there’s no question about it. It could be a problem.” The comments are the latest evidence that the bidding war for Warner Bros. might not be completely finished, as some other administration officials and members of Congress have come out against the deal, such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who said the deal looks like “an anti-monopoly nightmare.” Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos reportedly met with Trump at the White House last month to talk up Netflix’s bid, and unnamed sources told Bloomberg that Trump agreed the highest bidder should win.
Confluent Shares Soar on News of IBM Acquisition
Shares of Confluent (CFLT) are soaring after IBM (IBM) announced a deal to acquire the software maker for $31 per share, valuing Confluent at $11 billion. Confluent’s software helps companies manage and organize large amounts of data, an in-demand service as many companies are looking to manage massive data sets that are used in the training and running of artificial intelligence models. IBM will acquire Confluent with cash on hand, and said it expects the deal to close by the middle of next year. The Wall Street Journal had reported late Sunday that the sides were close to a deal. Confluent shares, which through Friday’s close had lost 17% of their value since the start of 2025, were up 27% in premarket trading Monday.
Carvana Among Stocks Set to Join S&P 500 Later This Month
Three companies got an early Christmas present late Friday, as S&P Global announced the latest changes to its major indexes that will go into effect later this month. CRH (CRH), Carvana (CVNA), and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) will be added to the S&P 500 as of Dec. 22 as part of the index’s quarterly rebalancing to adjust for shifting market capitalizations. Inclusion in a major index such as the S&P 500 can be seen as a boon for a company’s shares. The companies will replace LKQ (LKQ), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) and Mohawk Industries (MHK), which will all move to the S&P SmallCap 600. There will also be corresponding moves to replace those companies and many others in the smaller indexes. Carvana shares were up 9% in recent premarket trading, while CRH added 7% and Comfort Systems tacked on 2%.
China’s Trade Surplus Surpasses $1 Trillion Despite U.S. Tariffs
China announced Monday that the country’s trade surplus has surpassed a record $1 trillion for this year in just 11 months, up from $998 billion last year, according to The Wall Street Journal. China recorded a $111.68 billion surplus in November, its third-largest single month surplus ever. Trump’s tariffs and mounting trade tensions have lowered how much China is exporting to the U.S. by nearly 20%, but in response Chinese companies are also buying substantially less from America, with soybeans and other products falling sharply, keeping China at its recent levels of selling about three times as much to the U.S. as it buys. China has ramped up sales to Europe, Africa and South America, and is also routing some goods through those places for final assembly to then be shipped into the U.S., getting some products into the country around Trump’s tariffs, per the New York Times.
