U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.
In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk.
Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows recession risk by state in 2025, based on analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Where Recession Risk is Highest in America
To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.
States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:
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In Recession/High Risk
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Treading Water
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Expanding
State/DistrictBusiness Cycle StatusShare of U.S. GDP (%)GeorgiaIn Recession/High Risk3.03MontanaIn Recession/High Risk0.25WyomingIn Recession/High Risk0.18MichiganIn Recession/High Risk2.44MassachusettsIn Recession/High Risk2.73MississippiIn Recession/High Risk0.53MinnesotaIn Recession/High Risk1.70KansasIn Recession/High Risk0.80Rhode IslandIn Recession/High Risk0.28DelawareIn Recession/High Risk0.34WashingtonIn Recession/High Risk3.02IllinoisIn Recession/High Risk3.85West VirginiaIn Recession/High Risk0.36New HampshireIn Recession/High Risk0.42MarylandIn Recession/High Risk1.86VirginiaIn Recession/High Risk2.66South DakotaIn Recession/High Risk0.25ConnecticutIn Recession/High Risk1.27OregonIn Recession/High Risk1.14IowaIn Recession/High Risk0.86New JerseyIn Recession/High Risk2.93MaineIn Recession/High Risk0.33District of ColumbiaIn Recession/High Risk0.64MissouriTreading Water1.54OhioTreading Water3.14HawaiiTreading Water0.39ArkansasTreading Water0.65New MexicoTreading Water0.49TennesseeTreading Water1.87New YorkTreading Water7.92VermontTreading Water0.16AlaskaTreading Water0.24ColoradoTreading Water1.92CaliforniaTreading Water14.50NevadaTreading Water0.86South CarolinaExpanding1.18TexasExpanding9.41OklahomaExpanding0.92IdahoExpanding0.43KentuckyExpanding0.99AlabamaExpanding1.10IndianaExpanding1.81NebraskaExpanding0.63North CarolinaExpanding2.86LouisianaExpanding1.11FloridaExpanding5.78North DakotaExpanding0.26PennsylvaniaExpanding3.54ArizonaExpanding1.88WisconsinExpanding1.53UtahExpanding1.02
Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.
In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.
According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.
In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.
To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on unemployment by state in 2025.
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