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Legendary investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s well-known “all-weather” portfolio may not perform as well as portfolios with high-growth stocks during a stock market boom, but it can lead to a smoother ride during market downturns and uncertainty.
Dalio constructed the portfolio to withstand all conditions — bull runs, bear markets, supply chain issues, inflation and other uncertainties. Any investor can borrow his all-weather approach for steady growth and less volatility in retirement.
The ‘all-weather’ concept
Dalio’s strategy takes into account that a strong portfolio should be able to hold steady during various seasons of the economy and market, including seasons of growth, recession, inflation and deflation. Portfolios can endure sharp swings in either direction during any of these seasons, depending on how you have constructed your portfolio.
The all-weather concept focuses on building a portfolio that can perform decently in each of these seasons instead of relying entirely on one of these seasons to occur. Stocks, bonds, gold and commodities make up an all-weather portfolio (though you should tweak it to what makes sense for you). Stocks tend to perform well during growth periods, bonds often perform better than stocks during recessions, and gold and commodities can perform well during times of high inflation.
Retirees can use this model to preserve capital while opening the door to growth. The all-weather portfolio offers an umbrella during rainy days, making it a good choice for retirees and conservative investors.
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Why the strategy works
Diversifying into multiple asset classes reduces your exposure to a single investment, thus lowering volatility and your risk during a market downturn. The price swings of your portfolio will likely be even less dramatic if you allocate capital among investments that aren’t correlated with one another.
For instance, gold’s price often moves differently from stock prices. Stocks and bonds are often uncorrelated as well. The all-weather portfolio can become more valuable as people approach retirement and want to preserve their nest egg, since their time horizon is shorter than those of young investors who have time to recover from market downturns.
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How to implement the all-weather strategy
Low-cost exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can give you exposure to various assets. For instance, the iShares Gold Trust offers exposure to gold while the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) offers broad exposure to taxable investment-grade U.S. bonds.
Investors should also have some cash on hand for emergencies, which protects them from needing to sell during a market downturn. Financial advisors tend to recommend emergency funds of three to six months’ worth of expenses (or closer to one to two years’ worth of expenses for retirees).
It’s also important to regularly rebalance, which entails buying and selling securities to get your portfolio back to an asset allocation — as in, what percentage of your portfolio is in each asset — that aligns with your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.
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