Describing an unsteady trajectory as a roller-coaster ride has become cliché, but there is genuinely no other way to describe auto sales in 2025.
This year has been an anomaly for the car industry for many reasons, but the top issue has been tariffs and their impact on U.S. car buyers.
U.S. 2025 new-vehicle sales forecast
- GM: 2.83 million vehicles (+5.1% year over year); 17.3% market share
- Toyota: 2.52 million vehicles (+8.4% YoY); 15.5% market share
- Ford: 2.18 million vehicles (+5.6% YoY); 13.4% market share
- Hyundai: 1.84 million vehicles (+7.9% YoY); 11.3% market share
- Honda: 1.42 million vehicles (+0.6% YoY); 8.8% market share
Source: Cox Automotive
When President Donald Trump first announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, the auto industry already had a head start.
Unlike in other industries, Trump sought the counsel of auto executives on how to proceed with the tariffs most effectively. That communication helped alleviate some consternation on their end, as all three CEOs of the Detroit Big 3 have downplayed the tariffs, and some have even praised them profusely.
The tariffs announced on April 2 increased automotive import tariff burdens to 25%, resulting in billions of dollars in costs for both foreign and domestic automakers.
But the tariffs also had an unexpected effect on consumer demand.
In 2025, new car sales saw many ups and downs.
Photo by Halfpoint Images on Getty Images
U.S. carmakers boost sales, thanks to tariff anxiety
Ford rode dealer incentives, combined with consumer anxiety about tariffs, to become the top-selling brand in the U.S. during the year’s first half. Ford said total sales in the second quarter rose at a rate seven times that of the overall auto industry.
It sold 1.1 million units in the first six months, a 6.6% year-over-year increase.
Related: US car buyers reverse major trend in second half of 2025
However, Ford wasn’t the only beneficiary. GM was able to increase its U.S. market share above 17%, its most substantial presence in the U.S. since 2017, and other brands also saw their sales rise.
“Automakers are providing healthy incentives to keep sales flowing. Prices are trending higher, but just as we are seeing in the broader retail markets, there’s sufficient demand and generous incentives out there, and that’s driving the market,” said Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating earlier this year, as reported by Auto Success.
However, as incentive spending dwindled and car prices increased, consumer interest in the auto industry cooled off in the second half of the year.
Car sales crater in the fourth quarter, latest Cox Automotive data say
New car sales showed weakness in the third quarter and continued to decline in the fourth, according to Cox Automotive sales data.
The firm expects the December seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales to finish near 15.9 million, down from last year’s 16.8 million December pace but up from November’s 15.6 million pace.
Related: The Biggest Mistakes People Make when Buying a New Car
General Motors Q3 facts at a glance
- U.S. market share: 17%
- Electric vehicles sold: 67,000
- EV market share: 16.5%
- Dealer inventory: Down 16% year over year
- EV inventory: Down 30% since June
Source: General Motors
December sales volume is expected to fall 3.5% year over year.
Despite the end-of-year lull, new vehicle sales of 16.3 million are expected to finish the year up 1.8%, making this year the best since 2019.
“Despite challenges, 2025 has been a good year for new-vehicle sales. The fourth quarter is showing the expected slowdown, as headwinds from tariffs, inflation, and reduced EV incentives weigh on the market after nine surprisingly strong months. Still, consumer demand has kept the new-vehicle market healthy throughout 2025,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist.
Luxury-priced cars outsell cheaper models in the U.S.
As car prices have become more expensive, it appears that middle-class buyers aren’t flocking to dealerships as they did earlier in the year.
In November, cars priced over $75,000 outsold those priced under $30,000, according to Cox Automotive, citing data from Kelley Blue Book.
New vehicles with an MSRP below $30,000 accounted for just 7.5% of total sales in November, down from 10.3% a year ago, “as lower-priced vehicles continue to struggle in the U.S. market.”
The best-selling vehicles under $30,000 were mainstays, including the Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, and Chevy Trax.
Meanwhile, 10.8% of vehicles sold last month had MSRPs over $75,000.
Part of this trend is tied to Americans’ affinity for full-size pickup trucks. In November, the average MSRP for a full-size pickup was above $70,000 for the third straight month.
Dealers sold nearly 183,000 full-sized pickup trucks in November, accounting for 14.2% of all sales.
General Motors holds on to 2025 U.S. sales crown
The U.S. car industry is limping to the finish line as car buyers have failed to keep up the torrid purchase pace from earlier this year.
General Motors is forecast to end the fourth quarter with over 685,000 vehicles sold, representing an 8.7% year-over-year decline. This will give it the 2025 sales crown, with more than 2.8 million vehicles sold this year.
GM sold 5.1% more vehicles than it did a year ago, reaching 2.7 million, as its market share rose 0.5% to 17.3%.
Toyota came in second for the second year in a row, selling 2.5 million vehicles. The 8.4% year-over-year increase was accompanied by a percentage point rise in market share to 15.5%.
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