Intel (INTC) stock tumbled 17% on Jan. 23 after the chipmaker issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter.
The company beat expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025. Adjusted earnings came at 15 cents per share, well above Wall Street’s forecast of 8 cents. Revenue reached $13.7 billion, also topping the $13.4 billion estimate.
For the current quarter, Intel said it expects revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion and breakeven adjusted earnings. That missed consensus forecasts for 5 cents per share on $12.51 billion in revenue.
Intel’s Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said the softer outlook was partly due to limited supply to meet seasonal demand, and that supply would improve in the second quarter, CNBC reported.
Intel shares have more than doubled over the past 12 months as the previously embattled American chipmaker experienced major turnarounds.
Intel stock is up 22% year-to-date as of Jan. 23’s close, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 1% gain. Investors are questioning whether the pullback is a buy-the-dip opportunity or a warning sign.
Lip-Bu Tan, chief executive officer of Intel Corp.
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Intel’s ups and downs
Intel’s stock collapsed in 2024 after years of management mistakes. Its old AI strategy left the company far behind its rivals and led to major lay-offs.
Lip-Bu Tan took over as CEO in March 2025 and has since pushed through major changes to revitalize the company, including bringing in significant investment, cutting costs, and reorganizing the leadership structure.
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The U.S. government has become a key supporter of Intel and is now its largest shareholder after investing $8.9 billion last year.
Nvidia (NVDA) is also one of Intel’s biggest shareholders following a $5 billion investment last year. The two companies are co-developing custom data center CPUs, with Intel to integrate its processors into Nvidia’s systems.
Intel stock jumped 11% on Jan. 21 to its highest since January 2022, largely driven by optimism about Intel’s latest server chips, high expectations for the earnings report, and overall sentiment toward the artificial intelligence sector.
The company has started shipping its new “Panther Lake” PC chips, made with Intel’s 18A manufacturing technology, which is seen as equivalent to Taiwan Semiconductor’s 2-nanometer process technology.
Still, yields (the number of good chips per silicon wafer) remain a key uncertainty. Reuters has reported that only a small percentage of chips produced using Intel’s 18A technology have met quality standards for customers.
“While yields are in line with our internal plans, they are still below what I want them to be,” Tan said during the earnings call. He added that yields are improving by 7% to 8% per month.
Analyst sees “long road ahead” for Intel
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson reiterated a neutral rating and our $30 price target on Intel after the earnings, according to a research note sent to TheStreet.
Bryson noted that Intel’s supply constraints tied to limited fab capacity continue to weigh on meeting clients’ demand. At the same time, first-quarter sales are expected to decline as the company runs out of excess inventory that previously supported revenue.
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Bryson also said that while Intel’s 18A process is now shipping in volume, early-stage yields remain a headwind. Lower yields may limit output and pressure margins.
Stock price-wise, Bryson believes Intel’s stock has already priced in far more progress than the company has delivered, and it is still difficult to gauge the longer-term benefits.
“We struggle to support current valuations, given the seemingly long road ahead to building earnings power,” Bryson said. Intel currently trades at about 90X forward earnings, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Still, Bryson added that he won’t take a more negative stance on Intel, “given the volatility in newsflow and the significant positive effect recent news items have had on the stock.”
Intel stock closed at $45.07 on Jan. 23.
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