We’ve featured fresh reports of the US moving planes to the Middle East, such as: Probably F15s, F16s, F22s And F35s : Dozens Of US Jets Now Converging On The Middle East. There are similar reports, such as:
🔴 U.S. has significantly increased its military posture in the Middle East, with multiple C-17 transports deploying to bases in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, special operations assets (including Night Stalkers and AC-130 gunships) positioned regionally, and two carrier strike… pic.twitter.com/tC3mXC6nI3
— The Inquiry (@InquiryTh) January 10, 2026
It has been less widely noticed that Iran has changed its military doctrine from authorizing purely defensive action to pre-emptive defense.
From Tasmin News on January 6, translated by Resistance.org:
Statement of the Secretariat of the Defense Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, January 6, 2026.
[….]
The Islamic Republic of Iran, relying on national cohesion, comprehensive deterrence capability, and full defensive readiness, once again affirms that the country’s security, independence, and territorial integrity constitute an inviolable red line. Any infringement upon national interests, interference in internal affairs, or action against Iran’s stability will be met with a proportionate, targeted, and decisive response.
Within the framework of legitimate self-defense, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not limit itself to responding after an action has occurred and considers objective indications of threat as part of the security equation.
Reader Historiality claimed on January 8 that Russia was evacuating embassy staff from Israel. A colleague who has contacts among diplomats across the Global South just wrote us:
China has also pulled its diplomats out of Israel. Russia has urged its citizens to flee via Egypt. Neither country has pulled out of Iran to the best of my knowledge.
We are taking the liberty of posting the text of this entire tweet for reader convenience, since it can be read for free on Twitter.
A dramatic shift moves us from “defense” to a posture of “imminent offense.”. –Talal Nahle
At noon, the measures concerned “troop movements.”. Now, after sunset, Iran has begun “clearing firing corridors.” (Firing Corridors). This means vacating specific airspaces to allow its… pic.twitter.com/lk6nxk0UY9
— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) January 10, 2026
The body:
A dramatic shift moves us from “defense” to a posture of “imminent offense.”. –Talal Nahle
At noon, the measures concerned “troop movements.”. Now, after sunset, Iran has begun “clearing firing corridors.” (Firing Corridors). This means vacating specific airspaces to allow its missiles to launch toward external targets without colliding with civilian or friendly aircraft.
Here is the new and exclusive update in the evening brief of January 10 (17:01):
1. “Fire Corridor”. From Central to Western Iran
A new and dangerous NOTAM has appeared (A0398/26).
Location: A broad air strip extending from Markazi Province (Arak) and Hamedan toward the western borders (Kermanshah. Ilam).
Strategic analysis: This is not a protective closure of a site, but a clearance of a pathway. This “air tunnel” is typically established to allow ballistic missiles or drone swarms to pass safely from central launch bases toward targets in Iraq or Israel. The existence of this corridor indicates that missile batteries have been armed and oriented westward.
2. “Ocean Gate”. Jask
NOTAM number (A0390/26) has appeared.
Location: Jask port and naval base (on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz).
Critical importance: Jask hosts heavy submarines (Kilo class) and long-range anti-ship missile systems.
Analysis: Activating Jask means fortifying the “rear platform.”. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Jask is the only base capable of engaging U.S. fleets in the Indian Ocean. This secures the rear of the Iranian navy.
3. “The Last Iron Dome”. Tehran (SHORAD Alert)
NOTAM number (A0392/26) has appeared.
Location: Very low-altitude restrictions over specific areas of Tehran.
Analysis: This indicates the deployment and activation of short-range air defense systems (SHORAD) such as “Majid” or “Tor-M1” among residential buildings. The target here is not fighter jets, but cruise missiles or small drones that could slip between buildings. This is the “final layer” of defense before impact.
4. “Vahdati” Air Base. Dezful
NOTAM number (A0395/26) has appeared.
Location: Vahdati Air Base in Dezful.
Importance: A highly advanced offensive base (close to the Iraqi border), known for fast F-5 aircraft used for rapid response.
Analysis: Placing this base in a “live fire” status means it will be the spearhead of any border air engagement to prevent hostile aircraft from penetrating deeper territory.
Geopolitical conclusion of the evening brief (17:01):
The title of this file is “Opening the Road to Fire.”
The most dangerous element in this update is the “western air corridor” (Point 1).
When a state clears an air route from the center of the country to its borders, this is a very strong indicator of intent to launch offensive projectiles (missiles or drones), not merely defensive measures.
Preparations are complete:
Commanders are in bunkers (since noon).
The offensive pathway is open (now).
Close-in defense (SHORAD) is activated inside the capital (now).
Iran is now standing with its finger on the trigger.
As the end of this post indicates, this posture may be a signal of readiness as opposed to positioning for action to follow immediately. But given the clear signs that the US is moving military assets to the Iran theater, it is hard to think that it makes sense for Iran to stand pat.
One has to think that if the intent is to launch a pre-emptive strike, as opposed to engage in threat display, that Iran will not sit around in a state of high preparedness but will hit as soon as they are ready. So if the reading above is accurate and Iran plans to move first, the strike would seem likely to come tonight or at the latest, the night after.
