Segment-wise, the retail business is expected to deliver steady growth. Retail revenue is estimated to rise 2.8% quarter on quarter to Rs 93,060 crore from Rs 90,544 crore, while retail Ebitda is seen increasing 9.3% to Rs 7,448 crore from Rs 6,817 crore.
However, on a year-on-year basis, Ebitda growth in retail is expected to remain weak due to a high base. This is also influenced by losses in JioMart Quick Commerce and the demerger of Reliance Consumer Products.
The festive season impact has been split between second quarter and third quarter this year, compared with being concentrated in third quarter last financial year, further affecting comparability.
In addition, the demerger of Reliance Consumer Products and reduced retail selling prices of products following the GST rate cut are each expected to have a 2% impact on retail topline.
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment is expected to be one of the brighter spots in the quarter. O2C Ebitda is projected to rise 6.5% quarter on quarter to Rs 15,980 crore from Rs 15,008 crore, marking the highest sequential jump in the last four quarters.
Growth is likely to be driven by better refining margins and the benefit of a weaker rupee, partly offset by continued weakness in the petrochemicals business.
In contrast, the oil and gas exploration segment is expected to see a sharp decline. Ebitda from this business is projected to fall 12% quarter on quarter to Rs 4,388 crore from Rs 5,002 crore, representing the biggest drop in the last 15 quarters. The decline is attributed to lower realisations and volumes during the quarter.
