The volume of Russian crude oil imports by Indian refiners last month is expected to continue in December as well aided by rising discounts of Urals and the recent assurance by President Vladimir Putin of uninterrupted supplies.
Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in its latest commentary on Russia hydrocarbon trade earnings anticipates higher crude oil inflows to India continuing for the second consecutive month in December.
“In fact, India’s purchases may well record another increase in December, as cargoes loaded before the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions kicked in are delivered through the month,” CREA said.
India imported crude oil worth Euro 2.6 billion, or roughly $3 billion, last month compared to Euro 2.5 billion ($2.93 billion) in October 2025, as per CREA.
While, global real time data and analytics provider Kpler places India’s imports at around 1.83 million barrels per day (mb/d), up 13 per cent M-o-M and over 4 per cent Y-o-Y. Moscow accounted for roughly 36.30 per cent of India’s cumulative crude oil imports (around 5.05 mb/d).
“While private refiners’ imports suffered marginal reduction, state-owned refineries increased their Russian crude volumes by 22 per cent month-on-month in November. This comes as Russian Urals crude is discounted heavily following OFAC sanctions and with the two state leaders meeting and exchanging guarantees on the uninterrupted flow of oil,” CREA explained.
CREA said the discount on Urals increased by 4 per cent M-o-M in November 2025 averaging $6.66 per barrel below Brent, compared to October ($4.92) and September ($5.13). The average Urals price fell 6 per cent M-o-M to $55 per barrel, remaining above the new price cap of $47.6.
Kpler also puts discounts on Urals compared to Oman/ Dubai widening around $7 a barrel on a DES (Delivered Ex Ship) basis on India’s West Coast.
Russia has started offering higher discounts and is bringing in more shadow tankers for supplies as sanction by the US, the UK and the European Union disrupts its supply lines, analysts and refiners said.
Recently, Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline “As we flagged three weeks ago, most Indian refiners are adapting—not exiting—the Russian market. But reputational and financial risks remain high for large buyers, which is forcing Russian suppliers to widen discounts.”
CREA also noted that supplies through the shadow fleet of tankers to India and other destinations rose last month.
In November, G7+ tankers transported 27 per cent of Russian crude oil exports, while non-sanctioned ‘shadow’ tankers accounted for 7 per cent of the total. The largest share, 65 per cent, was carried by sanctioned ‘shadow’ tankers, it added.
While, G7+ and non-sanctioned tankers carried 38 per cent and 18 per cent of Russian crude oil exports, respectively, in October 2025, sanctioned vessels accounted for 44 per cent of the total cargoes.
India’s refined petroleum product exports processed from Russian crude oil continued last month, albeit at a slower pace.
In November, six refineries in India and Turkey exported Euro 807 million (roughly $945 million) of refined oil products partially made from Russian crude. An estimated Euro 301 million (around $350 million) of these products were refined from Russian crude, CREA said.
Besides, an estimated Euro 297 million ($348 million) of oil products exported by these refineries remain without a specified destination, it added.
In contrast, Australia, European Union (EU), the UK and the US cumulatively imported around $1.12 billion worth of petroleum products in October 2025 from Indian and Turkish refiners, of which around $510 million was processed from Russian crude oil.
Published on December 13, 2025
