With key enablers such as land, environmental clearances, power purchase agreements and equipment already secured, along with strong in-house project management and logistics capabilities, JM Financial believes there is a high probability that Adani Power will achieve its targeted capacity of around 41.9GW by financial year 2032 or fiscal 2033.
Operational performance is another area where Adani Power stands out. The company currently operates with a plant load factor of around 71% and a plant availability factor of about 91%, reflecting strong asset utilization and reliability.
JM Financial expects operational capacity to reach approximately 41.3GW by fiscal 2032. Alongside capacity growth, profitability per unit is also expected to improve, with Ebitda per MW projected to rise from about Rs 1.3 crore in fiscal 2025 to around Rs 1.8 crore by financial year 2032, driven by scale benefits, better operating efficiencies and stable demand.
To fund its aggressive expansion, Adani Power is expected to undertake a substantial capex program of around Rs 2 trillion over financial year 2025–2032. As a result, net debt-to-Ebitda is likely to rise from the current low of about 1.6 times in financial year 2025 to around 3.0 times by fiscal 2029. However, JM Financial expects leverage to moderate again to around 1.6 times by fiscal 2031 as new capacities become operational and cash flows ramp up.
From a sectoral perspective, JM Financial estimates that India will require coal-fired generation capacity of roughly 340GW by 2047, necessitating significant additions over the next two decades to meet rising demand and replace retiring plants. In this environment, Adani Power’s scale, execution strength and early positioning are seen as key advantages.
On the financial front, JM Financial expects Adani Power to deliver a revenue CAGR of around 15% and an Ebitda CAGR of about 18% over financial 2025–2028, supported by capacity additions and improving margins.
Installed capacity is estimated to reach nearly 39.5GW by financial 2032 under the brokerage’s assumptions. Historically, the stock has traded at around 10 times trailing EV/Ebitda over the past five years, but JM Financial believes the improving Ebitda per MW and execution visibility warrant a valuation premium.
