[Today’s Iran war post launched not complete due to AI. This is why I hate AI with the passion of a thousand burning suns. AI bots were scraping the site so hard that it was barely operating. Our tech maven Dave had to implement extra security measures….which prevented me from being able to launch posts1
So forgive me if this post is scattered due to my having chewed my knuckles while composing. It is now all fixed since I wake poor Dave to clear his defenses.
But either way, AI is making the site inoperable, either due to the intensity of the scraping making it time out often or due to the defenses preventing writers from posting. And this is not just our issue. We described how even best-of-breed Cloudflare, which we use, is stymied and has threatened to de-list all its clients’ sites from Google.
This is theft and vandalism. Those of you who use AI are stealing from me and many many many many other writers and journalists, as well as destroying the biosphere with profligate AI energy use. STOP NOW.]
The Iran conflict has moved to a phase where both sides are eye-poking each other even harder over control of the Strait of Hormuz, while being peculiarly measured in doing so. On the US side, the over-extension of the US military, in particular the condition of the US navy, its depleted weapons stocks, and the real risk of further base destruction pushing the US back to Israel and European footholds means the US is limited in what it can do ex nukes. The non-deluded armed services leaders, the Iranian, and Gulf States know that.
On the Iran side, even though they have demonstrated over the 47 years of the revolutionary republic that they can take great amounts of punishment, they also see advantage in pressing the US harder now. The US is in a clear state of vulnerability, militarily, economically, and politically. A fresh confirmation came in a new Axios story over the weekend, Iran war drives $100 billion in extra energy costs for U.S. consumers:
The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning….
By the numbers: The Iran War Energy Cost Tracker from Brown’s Watson School says higher gasoline and diesel prices have cost the average U.S. household more than $760 since the war began Feb. 28.
- Most of that is gas, though the diesel burden is rising faster of late.
- On Friday, diesel hit an all-time record high, and it’s continued to rise every day since. As of Monday morning it’s at $5.90 a gallon, per AAA, up about 60% from a year ago.
Between the lines: Texas has borne the biggest share, with consumers paying around $11 billion in extra gas and diesel costs since the war began in late February, per the tracker.
- California and Florida are next, at about $8 billion and $5 billion, respectively.
We’ll turn to economic effects and Trump Administration moves on that front later in this post.
By contrast, the oil that Iran was able to get to sea at higher than pre-war prices means it has enough government revenue to last until at least March 2027. However, even though as we will see soon, Iran has been escalating by shooting hypersonic missiles at US naval vessels and announcing a greatly expanded “exclusion zone,” they are still look to be slicing that salami as thin as possible. For instance, they are still only making warning shots at the Navy, even if now ones that experts think could sink or severely damage a warship. These same experts, some of whom have good security state connections, believe the US (or Israel unleashed by the US) would hit Iran with nuclear weapons in response if Iran actually sank a Navy ship or hit one in a way that produced serious casualties. Again, even though Larry Wilkerson contends that Iran could survive such an event (among other things, most of southern Iran would be spared to prevent fallout reaching Israel), it could kick off exchanges and a nuclear conflagration.
One way to see the difference in posture is the timing of responses. After the US hit Larak Island on August 31, claiming it was to to get missile launchers intended for mining the Strait of Hormuz, Iran responded in about 2 hours, sending ballistic missiles into two US bases in Jordan (one of which was supposed to be secret as the US was moving men and materiel there) as well as drones into Al Minhad base in the UAE. Around that time, a supertanker in the Oman corridor hit two mines and was engulfed in flames. On September 1, Iran continued its attack, hitting two supertankers in the Oman channel and claiming two more Reaper drone kills. The US finally responded on September 3, striking civilian targets on the coast, including a wedding party.2 Iran again reacted quickly, striking US bases in Kuwait and the UAE overnight.
The US again took its sweet time in retaliating. On September 5, it attacked three tankers off Kharg Island. As described long form by shipping maven Sal Mercogliano, the tankers were sanctioned and also empty, and the US shot the rear of the vessels. These were “mission kills” as in rendering them unfit for further operation, as opposed to sinkings.
Next, on September 6:
BREAKING: Iran has DIRECTLY STRUCK SIX SHIPS with ANTI-SHIP MISSILES in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters — its LARGEST-EVER ATTACK in the strategic waterway, according to the IRGC.
The attack came in response to this morning’s U.S. strike on THREE Iranian oil tankers…
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) September 5, 2026
At that time, Iran also fired two anti-ship hypersonic missiles, at the aircraft carrier George Washington and a guided-missile destroyer. CENTCOM admitted to taking evasive maneuvers. Disappointingly, Iran has taken to the US bad habit of making false claims and said it hit the vessels.
Since then, Iran has thrown down new markers. It has reaffirmed that it is implementing a more aggressive interpretation of the doctrine approved in January 2025, as in under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, of authorizing pre-emptive attacks. It is also creating what it calls an “exclusion zone” that extends to the US blockade line, asserting more control over the Strait of Hormuz environs.
A write-up at Reuters quotes Mohsen Rezaei, head of the Supreme National Security Council, making clear that details of how the exclusion zone will work are still being hashed out:
Iran said it will announce a new restricted zone in the Gulf in the coming days, along with maps of a new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, as a weekend exchange of strikes on shipping sent oil prices higher on Monday.
The new restricted zone will begin from where the U.S. blockade of Iran begins and extend into areas of the Gulf, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday in an interview with state TV.
Few details were provided on the plan, but Rezaei said any ship entering the new zone would be added to a sanctions list.
In addition, maps detailing passage routes for the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy conduit largely closed to tanker traffic, would also be approved soon, Rezaei said.
“The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days,” he said.
Today’s kinetic update, courtesy NO1:
- Jizan Aramco was struck around 11:00 UTC (MenchOsint); the Abha Bulk Plant followed with a significant smoke plume (MenchOsint). Third facility inside the window: Jizan Bulk Plant, with south-western Saudi Arabia now facing likely domestic fuel shortages (MerruX). Confidence: HIGH
- The Jizan refinery timeline is now a repeating loop: hit 25 July, shut 27 July, restart pushed twice, hit again today – a 400kbpd refinery turned into “a recurring maintenance subscription” (VonburyResearch). Confidence: MEDIUM
- Combined drone and ballistic strike on King Khalid Air Base at Khamis Mushait, multiple explosions reported (MoloWarMonitor); footage of a ballistic missile impacting Abha (Clash_Intel). Confidence: MEDIUM
- Ground war widened: Saudi-backed PLC spokesman announced an operation to seize all of Yemen including Sana’a, with heaviest fighting across Taiz, Al-Dhale’a, Ma’rib and Al-Jawf (A7_Mirza). Ansarallah struck Saudi equipment convoys at Al-Wadiah base with ballistic missiles (MenchOsint). Confidence: MEDIUM
And from PressTV in ‘No safe place’ in Saudi Arabia, all energy facilities legitimate targets: Yemen:
A senior member of Yemen’s Ansarullah movement has warned that there is no longer any safe place in Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom’s vital facilities are legitimate targets.
Hizam al-Assad, a member of Ansarullah’s political bureau, said oil, industrial and other vital facilities across Saudi Arabia are no longer secure. The warning came following a Saudi attack against a correctional facility in al-Jawf that left more than a dozen casualties, including a visiting child.
“Oil-producing areas, industrial sites and vital facilities across Saudi Arabia are no longer safe,” al-Assad said.
He also warned that the threat could have serious economic consequences for the kingdom, saying the “future of investment in Saudi Arabia is at risk of being destroyed.”
Aljazeera’s live feed reports that the Saudis are retaliating:
From the text:
- Forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognised government launch counterattacks against the Houthi rebels, with officials saying they aim to recapture the capital, Sanaa, from the Iran-backed group.
- At least 73 civilians are wounded in Houthi strikes on cities and economic infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia as Riyadh warns against continuing attacks.
NO1 did not include this sighting of the Iran taking more pot-shots at Navy vessels, mid-afternoon US Eastern time. . From The Hormuz Report on Twitter:
BREAKING: IRAN HAS AGAIN LAUNCHED ANTI-SHIP BALLISTIC MISSILE from Sirik in southern Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly in the direction of U.S. aircraft or vessels — marking the FOURTH SUCH LAUNCH TODAY, with ZERO IMMEDIATE U.S. RESPONSE reported, according to initial reports.
The repeated launches come as Tehran continues to TEST THE LIMITS of U.S. forces operating around the Strait.
Iran is warning that it could SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SCALE OF ITS ATTACKS if the U.S. continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The other loose cannon is Israel, whose elections are on October 27. Brandon Weichert and Matthew Ho both agreed in a recent conversation that there was a serious risk of Israel launching nuclear strikes on Iran on October 5 or 6 (I assume nothing unduly belligerent will happen before China’s President Xi visits the US on September 23 and 24). Another concern voiced by them and other YouTubers is that Israel may stage a false flag attack:
BREAKING: ISRAEL IS ON ITS HIGHEST ALERT as intelligence indicates Iran is preparing a COORDINATED MULTI-FRONT ATTACK involving Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, per The Jerusalem Post.
Unlike October 7, Tehran is reportedly preparing all fronts to…
— The Globe Letter (@GlobeLetter) September 6, 2026
At the same time, Rosh Hashanah, which is September 11 to 13, could be a good window for a big strike, not just by virtue of it being a major Jewish holiday but also due to its proximity to the Xi-Trump pow-wow.
On the economic front, oil prices are ticking up and stock futures down. From Bloomberg’s landing page:
From the body of Brent Oil Surges Near $100 as Attacks Halt Saudi Energy Sites:
- rent oil approached $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said operations at several energy facilities were halted by attacks.
- The state-run Saudi Press Agency said the strikes took place Tuesday and wounded a number of people, with Iran-backed Houthi militants saying they targeted the kingdom’s Jazan refinery and facilities.
- Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc analysts modestly raising the bank’s oil-price estimates on the assumption that shipping disruptions will persist into 2027.
Brent oil approached $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said operations at several energy facilities in the kingdom’s south were halted by attacks.
The global benchmark was less than $1 away from triple figures after rallying last week on a flare-up in Middle East hostilities and a pick-up in buying by China, the world’s largest importer.
The state-run Saudi Press Agency said the strikes took place Tuesday and wounded a number of people. Iran-backed Houthi militants said they again targeted the kingdom’s 400,000 barrel-a-day Jazan refinery and facilities that serve the domestic market. The Houthis are blockading Saudi Arabia’s oil flows in response to Riydah’s siege of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, and have made repeated strikes in recent weeks.
More from Goldman:
Goldman on oil
Friendly reminder before the pitchforks come out, this is from GS oil desk, not my personal take.
Please don’t be mad at me guys…. Dropping the spicy charts in the thread below.#oott #iran pic.twitter.com/3tBbkvIf3B
— JH (@CRUDEOIL231) September 8, 2026
Jeff Currie was wrong on his call as to when the oil cliff would arrive, putting it as of July. But William White and Claudio Borio of the Bank of International Settlements warned of housing bubbles in many advanced economies in 2003, and Nouriel Roubini sounded the alert for the US in 2005. What looks like an erroneous assessment may just be too early.
GOLDMAN SEES $80 BRENT IN 2027 — ITS OLD COMMODITIES CHIEF CONTRADICTS
Jeff Currie built Goldman Sachs into a commodities powerhouse. Now the former global head of commodities research is openly rejecting the house he left. Goldman just lifted Brent to $85 for December and $80… pic.twitter.com/Ykc40fhu46
— Mark (@Mark4XX) September 8, 2026
Physical crude is again trading higher than paper crude:
Oman Crude $114,87 https://t.co/MzMsEVBLtB
— Karel Mercx (@KarelMercx) September 8, 2026
Some see the reaction as muted give the givens:
The IRGC fired nonstop in the Strait of Hormuz today
Jizan refinery is on fire again
The crude oil market remained well managed
All good under the sun 👍
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) September 7, 2026
And:
A dear friend working for a HF just told me that nobody managing money for a living would be still shorting crude oil at this point – only someone who doesn’t care about losing a ton of money would
I asked him if he thinks those heavy sticky shorts in the market are governments…
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) September 8, 2026
More from the peanut gallery:
US officials apparently don’t know enough about oil tankers to lie convincingly.
40 tankers carrying 16 million barrels = just 400,000 barrels each
But a VLCC carries ~2 mmb
If officials had said 8 tankers, maybe I’d believe it.
But 40 is pure amateur hour#Oil #Hormuz #Iran… https://t.co/KwDmtPgpLT pic.twitter.com/w1kAO3NVDb
— Art Berman (@aeberman12) August 23, 2026
However, Trump’s messaging is looking tired, and more important, ineffective:
The scenario most likely to produce considerably lower energy prices soon is if a global crisis kills economies stone cold dead. Crude fell from $147 a barrel in July 2008 to under $42 a barrel in early 2009.
And some cleanup and tidbits. The US has bothered trying to defend the Trump claim that the US removed all those nasty Iranian mines, when a supertanker hitting mines would seem to prove otherwise. Nevertheless, from the Financial Times in The risky mission to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz on September 6:
As the US exchanged tit-for-tat strikes with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz in recent months, it was also engaged in a much more covert operation within the waters of the narrow, strategically crucial channel.
Mostly at night, it sent Navy Seal divers, robot boats and specialised underwater craft into the perilous strait for a four-month mine-clearance mission…
Trackers had reported that three Gulf-based US ships normally tasked with mine countermeasures had been outside the region, in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, since at least early June.
Minesweeping an area of sea even in peacetime is a painstaking process that can take months. Specialised vessels must snake up and down the waterway, cutting mines from their moorings and shooting them when they start to float.
But in this case, US Navy divers worked in small teams using inflatable-hulled craft. They located Iranian mines with the help of robot boats and submersibles — such as the US Navy’s Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel — operating towed sonar arrays.
These devices, containing high-resolution, side-looking sonar sensors, can see objects such as mines on the ocean bottom at startlingly high resolution. That enables them to sweep large areas with minimal risk to crews.
But that process is often followed by the riskiest element of the mission.
“That is usually followed up by a navy diver who’s got to get in the water and approach the mine, and then put a charge on it and destroy it,” said Bill Hamblet, a retired US Navy captain who often operated in the Gulf….
Shipowners and security advisers said they were optimistic that the southern half of the strait, close to Oman’s coast — through which the US has been guiding ships — had genuinely been cleared, while doubting that the entire strait was mine-free.
Again, recall that that supertanker that just hit two mines was in that supposed safe southern channel.
Some anti-imperialists were enthusiastic about Pakistan announcing in April that it was opening six land corridors to Iran. That does not seem to be working as planned:
The “Iranian trucks and replace ships” idea a lot of Trump Administration critics in the media surfaced for months is now in the face of the US naval blockade is failing the test of reality.⬇️ https://t.co/S2PBUtFoRK
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 7, 2026
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
____
1
2 There was a communications tower 150 meters away from the wedding, but that IMHO is not a colorable defense for the US murders, particularly in light of the lack of a US apology.
