Despite the US President Donald Trump’s assertion that India has promised to halt Russian crude oil imports, analysts and refiners say a complete halt is “extremely unlikely” at least for the next two to three months.
Moreover, they caution that if India did completely halt Russian cargoes, the implications for the world’s fastest growing economy could be “disruptive”.
Besides, trade sources, refiners and analysts clarified that thus far, there is no diktat from the government to stop purchases of crude oil from Moscow.
Logistics also supports their claim: typically, cargoes from Russia are booked about 10 weeks in advance. Currently, vessels ferrying the commodity are at various stages of loading and transporting, which means that cargoes booked 10 weeks prior will continue to off-load crude oil at Indian ports, mostly on the west coast, till end-March or April 2026.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modelling, told businessline “India–US trade deal does not imply a near-term structural shift in India’s crude slate. Russian barrels remain sticky in the next term (around 2 months), while incremental diversification risk skews toward US and Venezuelan crude rather than a sharp displacement of Urals.”
Moody’s Ratings said “Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately, which could be disruptive to India’s economic growth. A complete shift toward non-Russian oil could also tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and pass through to higher inflation given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers.”
However, Prashant Vasisht, Senior VP and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said “The discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to the US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that replacement of Russian crude with market-priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill of the country by less than 2 per cent.”
The announcement of the US-India trade deal includes removing the 25 per cent penal tariffs on India, with the latter agreeing to stop purchases of crude oil from Russia, he added.
Additionally, India is to step up purchases of US crude oil and potentially start buying oil from Venezuela. For the Indian refining sector, there are ample avenues including the US, to purchase crude as Russian crude accounted for less than 2 per cent of Indian crude imports prior to FY23, he said.
“Additionally Venezuelan crudes are heavy and sour and therefore cheaper and would be of interest to Indian refiners, many of whom can process these types of crudes,” Vasisht said.
Published on February 3, 2026
