Despite China conducting live-fire military drills near Taiwan, cryptocurrency bettors see only a low probability of Beijing imposing a blockade on the self-ruled island in the near future.
Taiwan Blockade Odds Remain Low
Odds that China imposes an aerial or naval blockade on Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, by June 2026 are now just 10% on Polymarket, down from 17% a month earlier and an all-time high of 24% on Oct. 18
According to the contract’s rules, a blockade occurs when foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan’s main ports or airports is restricted by threat or use of force, but not military or naval exercises or drills.
Meanwhile, the probability that Beijing will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 stood at 12%, with over $2 million wagered on the outcome at the time of writing.
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Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.
The prediction market is making a staggered comeback in the U.S. market and is getting rolled out to those on the waitlist.
Why China’s Military Drills Signal Rising Tensions
The odds come as China launched 10 hours of live-firing exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, aimed at rehearsing a blockade of the sovereign island, reported Reuters.
The drills come nearly two weeks after the State Department approved a $11.15 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including artillery systems, anti-tank missiles, and spare parts for helicopters and anti-ship missiles.
China deemed the move a “gross violation” of the one-China principle and of agreements between Washington and Beijing.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump signed the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, a move that was met with praise from Taipei and objections from Beijing.
The US-China-Taiwan Tango
Beijing asserts that there is only one sovereign China and sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland.
Although the U.S. does not have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and is not legally required to defend it, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act commits Washington to provide Taiwan with the defense equipment and services needed to help the island maintain adequate self-defense capabilities.
Photo Courtesy: Tom Wang on Shutterstock.com
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