[Today’s Iran war post launched before complete because I had scheduled appointments. Please return at 8:00 PM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
Today’s post will be a bit skeletal because preliminary reports of what is effectively a return to a hot war may not be accurate or complete. So I hope readers will add details in comments. As indicated, I will provide more information and any needed clean-up by 8:00 PM EDT
The high-level version of events was that Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran that was certain to be rejected.1 It amounted to demanding that Iran not only cede control of the Strait of Hormuz but also apologize for attacks on transits on the Oman side. Iran did not deign to provide a formal response, but instead closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired what was believed to be a cruise missile at a Cypriot-flagged ship on the Oman side after issuing a warning. The US was clearly ready to attack and reacted quickly. But the significance, according to initial reactions, was that the US salvo was far more intense than any during the nominal ceasefire and amounts to a restart of the war. Some, such as Brandon Weichert, see the profile of the attacks as preparation for a ground operation. Kuwait and Bahrain participated in the attack, which means that these Gulf states are so opposed to Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz that they are willing to take more punishment. Iran was initially reported as firing on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Iran has said it struck Qatar and Oman, so Oman is apparently being punished for allowing the transit channel to operate in its territorial waters. Keep in mind that Qatar had just visited Oman and had submitted a proposal for the Strait of Hormuz to Iran which was quickly and predictably rejected. 1
It was evident that the US was setting up a pretext for escalation. Mario Nawfal points out that the US strikes came within minute of reports of Iran action. This video covered the US attacks but not the US counter-strikes.
Key comments from a mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Mario Nawfal: I’m surprised how quickly the Americans retaliated. It was within minutes…
Brandon Weichert: I think that also though indicates, if I can just speculate, and this is just speculation, I could be wrong. I think that also indicates though that the Americans are primed to do something more than what they’ve done before. And I think the the speed and the rapidity of of the retaliation, there’s clearly no longer this sort of even keel, you know, slow approach to escalation. I really think that the the United States is getting ready to do something very drastic and very very damaging to itself as well as to the world…..
This is going to get nasty. It’s going to get nast because Trump is absolutely never going to let them have even an a semblance of control over the Strait.
And the Iranians are never going to drop this issue….
I do believe that the last two weeks of the MOU I think a lot of that was to buy time for us to get small arms and other offensive gear in the hands of the Iraqi Kurds. We’ve already blown up a lot of the infrastructure that Iran has in terms of border security along their border with northern Iraq. That to me indicates we’re punching holes for eventually some kind of force to move in via northern Iraq. And I would also remind your audience, the last time a war erupted going from Iraq to Iran was Saddam Hussein. And that was the most destructive war since World War I in that part of the world. And it didn’t end well for the Iraqis. So I doubt that it’s going to end well for the Iraqi Kurds if this is the route they’re really going to take….
I just want to make it clear to your audience the regime’s legitimacy is not economic. The regime’s legitimacy is predicated on their religiosity and their appearance of leading the resistance against perceived American imperialism in the region. So the idea that oh well we collapse their economy and therefore the people will popularly uprise and overthrow that is not the case at all. It never has been.
47 years of sanctions, 47 years of US economic warfare comprehensive waged on Iran. The regime has never buckled. It has not. So that’s why the president is making a grave miscalculation and it’s going to end up being the end of the American empire in the Middle East and it’ll be a spectacular defeat.
Malcolm Nance: So we are going we are in according to the Geneva Conventions back in a state of war. Don’t mislead yourself into believing that this is anything other than war. It is not tit for tat air strikes. We’re in combat now and the only thing that’s happening is there are slight pauses as the tempo the the tempo of the warfare is growing and increasing.
The problem for America is we are behind Iran’s up-tempo. The Iranians are pushing this because they know what they’re doing. They are pushing Trump to keep attacking them around the Strait, so that he gets every day closer to collapsing the American oil economy and the global economy every day that it’s closed. That’s all this is about. And there’s nothing he can do anymore. He can’t land Marines there, Like we talked about yesterday. He can’t seize the islands. He can’t own that part of Iran. He’s just going to have to deal with it.
Others confirm that this round of US strikes was the strongest since the signing of the MOU:
I think it’s safe to say that this is the largest escalation since the beginning of the so-called memorandum of understanding.
The U.S. carried out over 140 airstrikes on Iran, while Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones towards targets in Jordan, Kuwait,…
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) July 12, 2026
To bring you more current, from PressTV in ‘Bring it on’: Iran pounds several regional US military sites after renewed American assaults:
Iran’s Armed Forces have launched coordinated missile and drone strikes against US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman in response to continued American assaults on southern Iran, with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian Army warning that any further US action will trigger harsher retaliation.
In a statement early on Sunday, the IRGC’s Public Relations Office said that the United States had sought to “once again test what has already been tested” by imposing its will on the Omani government and provoking tensions through the “illegal movement” of several vessels south of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Navy, it hastened to add, thwarted the attempt with a “decisive response.”….
In a subsequent statement, the IRGC said a second “offending vessel” in the Strait of Hormuz had been struck and brought to a halt.
The IRGC added that during the second phase of its retaliatory operation, its ballistic missiles also targeted the strategic US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and destroyed the base’s fighter aircraft maintenance and repair center as well as its command-and-control center….
In its third phase of response, the IRGC’s Aerospace Force launched a “heavy” attack on “the logistical support centers for naval vessels and the fueling platforms of US aircraft carriers at the Port of Duqm, Oman.”
Middle East Eye’s live feed has a good high-level update:
• An IRGC missile strike on a Cyprus-flagged container ship off the coast of Oman triggered the latest round of US strikes. The Guard later claimed it had stopped a second vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the “era of one-sided deals is over” and urged the US to “keep your word or pay the price”.
• Qatar said three people, including a child, were injured by falling debris from missile interception operations.
• US Central Command (Centcom) said the latest strikes targeted Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communications networks and coastal surveillance positions.
• The IRGC accused the US of “imposing its will” on Oman’s government by attempting to route vessels through the Strait of Hormuz via what it described as “an illegal route” south of the waterway.
From Aljazeera’s live feed:
- Iran claims attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman as UAE also reports intercepting Iranian missiles and drone threats.
- The attacks came after the US announced a third round of strikes on Iran this week, accusing it of attacking a Cyprus-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran says US air strikes targeted 5 cities in Bushehr province
We continue to receive updates on the US’s overnight attacks on Iran.
IRNA, citing a local official from Bushehr, says US forces attacked five cities in the province, including Asaluyeh, Dir, Bushehr, Dashti and Tangestan.
The province is situated on Iran’s southern coast and has been repeatedly attacked during the war.
Strikes earlier this week destroyed civilian infrastructure in the province, according to Iranian officials, including areas near the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Bloomberg is behind the plot and is reporting as of now (3:00 AM EDT) only on the US attacks and not the Iran retaliation. Ditto BBC.
More kinetic updates:
BREAKING: The IRGC claims it has struck a second vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, destroyed the command center housing fighter jets at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and “smashed to pieces” the U.S. Navy’s logistics and aircraft carrier refueling hub at Duqm Port in Oman.
The IRGC… https://t.co/5fCjjew75x
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) July 12, 2026
BREAKING: Iran is currently carrying out massive attacks against Qatar, with new explosions reported minutes ago. Local residents describe it feeling like the first days of the war.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours: fighting time.
Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there’s that.
The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that… pic.twitter.com/g8xaIvCHn1
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) July 12, 2026
The key text:
Well, it looks like the Strait is closed again. IRGC fired at two ships, one of them is sinking, so there’s that.
The US tried to get another group of tankers in, and two were hit. The two VLCCs made it in. Incredible that these tanker owners are fearless.
As the escalation continues, tankers will likely transit without AIS on, but they ultimately turn it back on after they pass, so we will see them.
Only time will tell how this conflict ends, but for now, the inbound VLCCs are completely insufficient to reduce the production shut-in.
And the chart:
Even though Ravid has been repeatedly been pre-debunked, Mr. Market will still take him at face value:
Sometime tomorrow, before markets open on Monday, Axios will publish an article by Israeli intelligence operative Barak Ravid.
Ravid will report that, according to unnamed US officials, Iran contacted the Trump regime over the weekend because it wanted to restart negotiations. pic.twitter.com/x4zG7LYCqb
— Dimitri Lascaris (@dimitrilascaris) July 12, 2026
Breaking News:
Senior US Senator Lindsey Graham has died from a “brief and sudden illness”, his office shas said.
◾ It is important to note that Senator Lindsey Graham was visiting Ukraine yesterday and went to the frontlines.
— South Asia Index (@SouthAsiaIndex) July 12, 2026
Confirmed:
Graham gone. Maybe we can get some peace?
— Brandon Weichert (@WeTheBrandon) July 12, 2026
____
1 A bit more backstory from Bloomberg:
From perceptiondaily on Twitter:
🤝 MEDIATION — Qatar is in Tehran while Oman drafts a Hormuz shipping plan — simultaneously.
📌 LOOK CLOSER: Two mediators moving in parallel after Bushehr and Jask were struck signals coordinated urgency, not routine diplomacy. Qatar inside Tehran gives Doha direct read on Iranian redlines post-Mojtaba’s oath. Oman’s Hormuz plan targets the closure declaration’s operational core. If both tracks align, Washington gets a face-saving off-ramp — Iran reopens shipping under a managed framework, not capitulation.
And of course the US was trying to spin-doctor an initiative that was sure to fail in a more US-friendly manner if it miraculously worked out. From DropSite on Twitter:
🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iranian media rejects Axios framing of Hormuz talks
Axios reporter Barak Ravid said Qatari officials joined Iran-Oman talks in Muscat and that the parties were discussing a statement opening the Strait of Hormuz’s “median lane” in international waters to unrestricted movement.
Tasnim, citing an Iranian political source, rejected that account. The source said decisions on the strait’s future management belong to Iran and Oman under Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum, while Qatar is present only as a mediator.
Taken together, the developments may suggest Washington crafting a face-saving route out of the recent re-escalation. A senior Iranian official also told Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill yesterday that diplomacy is continuing only at mediators’ insistence because the U.S. wants “a path for Trump to withdraw,” while stating that Iran will not allow the established existing arrangements and monitoring mechanisms in Hormuz to be disrupted.
